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ECOLOGICAL RISK TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND SCENARIO PREDICTION OF HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORK AND SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAY
LIU Dan, HUANG Shanqing, YANG Yang, et al
Resources & Industries    2021, 23 (6): 38-51.   DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210915.002
Abstract136)      PDF(pc) (6570KB)(89)       Save
Hydropower is the key renewable energy to reach China‘s carbon peak, but it faces large ecological risks. Where is the southwestern China going in the future as the biggest hydropower developing area? Development of hydropower in the southwestern China relates not only to a quality economic growth, but also to the objective of "developing while protecting, protecting while developing" in Yangtze River stream, and even to China’s strategic carbon peak. This paper, aiming at the ecological risk evaluation in hydropower development, establishes a Bayesian network analysis framework in evaluating ecological risks in hydropower development, and studies its risk transmission mechanism from conditional probability. An entropy evaluation model is set up combined with shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios to forecast the hydropower demand in the southwestern during 2018 to 2030 based on 2017 as a benchmark year. Spatial and scenario differentiation of ecological risks during hydropower development are studied from city and stream perspectives. The risks are positively related to hydropower amounts, will be at a middle to high risk level during 2018 to 2030, which may be under control if sustainable development policies are in place. Hydropower development risks vary with cities and streams, which requires appropriate sustainable development policies. 
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DEMAND PREDICTION OF NON FERROUS METAL RESOURCES DRIVEN BY NEW ENERGY VEHICLE BATTERY
YIN Ren-shu, YANG Yan-ping, XIE Lin-ming, CHEN Zhi-lin, CHEN Yuan-hua
Resources & Industries    2016, 18 (5): 85-.   DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20161024.007
Abstract479)      PDF(pc) (1870KB)(1004)       Save
This paper, based on policy goals, predicts the new energy vehicles, and their loaded production and used Li ion batteries for 2016-2025, including LiFePO4 and LiMn1xyNixCo-yO-2, calculates the demand of five non ferrous metals, lithium, aluminum, copper, nickel and cobalt under two scenarios. In 2025 the demand of five above stated metals will be 182.3 to 757.3kt, of which lithium 8.1-33.2kt, aluminum 88.4-373.6kt, copper 52.0-226.9kt, nickel 16.9-61.8kt, cobalt 16.9-61.8kt. Compared with their production in 2014, all may not meet the demand in 2025 with the exception of aluminum, especially cobalt and lithium.
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ANALYSIS ON GOLD INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE IN CHINA
ZHOU Shu-min QI Kai-jing WANG Jian-ping LIU Zhen-jiang LIU Jun YANG Yan
Resources & Industries    2008, 10 (1): 45-49.  
Abstract2456)      PDF(pc) (1353KB)(2650)       Save

Gold production and consumption in China is increasing recently. Gold industry is stepping into group’s operation and sizable management. This paper, based on current status of Chinese gold producers, gold production, price and consumption, analyzes the gold industrial structure and presents a strategy for Chinese gold industry.

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